Dangerous alcohol consumption in college student continues to threaten individual and public health due to the consequences and ramifications of the practice. The health effects of harmful drinking are well documented and span many different facets of an individual’s physiological and psychological health. As universities grapple with attenuating student alcohol consumption, behavioral research concerning the subject steadily evolves to elucidate the motivations and factors behind risky drinking. Existing research suggests that alcohol use problems are often precipitated during the first year in which students are enrolled at a university. This study aims to develop and test an algorithm designed to predict hazardous drinking in first-year university students.
The study uses a database of university students in Belgium who completed a series of surveys called the Leuven College Surveys which was part of a World Health Organization longitudinal behavioral health study of college students around the globe. Specifically, a total of 5843 first-year student responses of an initial baseline survey and 1959 subsequent 12-month follow up responses were used. The longitudinal survey series assessed the following student characteristics: demographics, alcohol use patterns (via Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test), childhood trauma (via Composite International Diagnostic Interview, Adverse Childhood Experience Scale, and Bully Survey), prior year stress, and prior year mental health disorders (via Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales, and Self-Injurious thoughts and behaviors interview). Data analysis was completed using multivariate logistic regression models.
Results of the analysis found the following variables to be significantly associated with the onset of an alcohol use disorder during the first university year: hazardous drinking before enrollment, being male, past-year breakup, history of interpersonal betrayal, past-year stressful event experience, past-year drug use disorder, and past-year eating disorder. Prediction analysis found 20.1% of high-risk students (defined as the 10% of students at highest risk) would go on to develop alcohol use disorders while only 3.9% would do so in the lowest risk group. It was also found that over half of all cases (55.5%) of onset alcohol use disorder during the first university year would occur in the high-risk group.
Takeaway: many different characteristics of first-year university students are associated with harmful patterns of alcohol consumption and onset of alcohol use disorders. Screening incoming students for these particular traits and experiences may help identify subgroups of at-risk students, helping consolidate university-wide intervention efforts.