The transition to collegiate environments corresponds with significant increases in binge drinking and cannabis use that undermine academic performance, thereby necessitating the implementation of preventive intervention. Notwithstanding the adoption of evidence-based frameworks such as CollegeAIM by numerous institutions, administrative surveys remain plagued by substantial underreporting, consequently impeding the development of effective prevention strategies. To address this limitation, the Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) has gained attention as a complementary assessment instrument that quantifies vulnerability to substance use disorders by integrating antecedent behavioral and personality factors—such as antisocial proclivities, impulsivity, and affective disturbances. However, empirical applications of the TLI remain substantially limited. Accordingly, the present study aims to evaluate the extent to which TLI‐derived characteristics predict alcohol and cannabis initiation, usage patterns, and related problems during students’ first semester.
The study comprised 252 first‐year college students enrolled in the MAPme Project. Behavioral and temperamental characteristics were assessed at baseline via the Transmissible Liability Index (TLI), while alcohol and cannabis use—and related problems—were measured using the World Health Organization’s Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST). Data collection occurred through self‐report surveys administered at the beginning and end of the semester, and analyses included descriptive statistics in R and both logistic regression (to examine cross‐sectional and longitudinal associations between TLI scores and substance use status) and linear regression (to evaluate the predictive utility of TLI scores for age of initiation and severity of substance‐related problems) conducted in MPlus.
According to the study, 61% had ever used alcohol and 27% cannabis at baseline, with those figures declining to 53% and 19% by the end of the semester. Mean initiation ages were 16.41 (SD = 2.08) for alcohol and 17.05 (SD = 1.33) for cannabis. TLI scores significantly predicted both cross-sectional and prospective alcohol and cannabis use—higher liability was associated with greater odds of use at both waves (e.g., Wave 2 alcohol OR = 3.09; cannabis OR = 3.79) and with earlier initiation of both substances. Importantly, TLI retained its predictive utility for alcohol‐related problems even after accounting for age of initiation and baseline problems (β = 0.31), whereas for cannabis, only prior cannabis problems robustly forecasted subsequent difficulties. These findings support the TLI’s clinical utility for identifying matriculating students exhibiting heightened vulnerability to alcohol misuse during early college transition period, although its incremental validity regarding cannabis-related consequences may be constrained by established patterns of pre-collegiate utilization.
Takeaway: The Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) effectively predicts early alcohol use and related problems among first-year college students, demonstrating its potential as a screening tool for targeted prevention.